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The Rushfield Review: Handicapping the field 26 March, 2009

The Rushfield Review: Handicapping the field

On the Idoldome stage Wednesday night, we saw the first signs of weariness began to show on the ten remaining gladiators of song vying to become the next American Idol. Until now, their giddiness from the heady experience of being on this fabled stage has sustained them even through the nerve-wracking highs and lows – and so far this season most of them have seen far of the former than the latter.


But on Motown night the strain was a living presence on the stage; no longer could the contestants afford to laugh off bad notices from the judges; the grueling schedule and unimaginable pressure of a million choices made under the pitiless eyes of tens of millions are beginning to take to their toll. 

And much worse lies ahead. Each will find their limits and many will reach the place where they only pray for a quick and painless end to their trials.

It is the moment when the pack begins to separate; when the true contenders for the crown break out and others begin the painful meltdown process that sees their once bright hopes evaporate.

At this point in the season, every singer who has not delivered a signature show-stopping moment is playing Russian Roulette each week, hoping for a lucky break to save them. Every time a singer turns in one of those moments, he or she builds up a resevoir of good will that can last them one to three weeks, until they fall back in the crosshairs again. In the seasons first few weeks, we’ve only had a handful of those moments and thus only a very small number can be considered truly untouchable. The field remains remarkably fluid.

THE BOTTOM TIER:


Michael Sarver
Momentum: Negative
Riding a down arrow to the bottom of the pack, has been lackluster at best throughout the season and unless a miracle happens, is living on borrowed time. Had the looks of one who has lost the will to fight as the judges used him for a punching bag. Unforgivably said he was “okay with that” when Simon said he couldn’t win; not winning is not a thought any true contender should ever be okay with. The down home vote may see him through for a bit longer however.

Scott MacIntyre
Momentum: Even.
Despite his appealing innocent charm and compelling story, the early hopes for greatness are disappearing fast.

Megan Joy
Momentum: Negative
Likely fell from the middle tier to the bottom tier with her panned performance tonight. Her quirky antics and surprisingly strong performance last week still give her a stong following, however, with some believing she is the most unique and original Idol contestant in years. Also helping- the fact that she is one of only three women left.

THE MIDDLE TIER:

Anoop Desai
Momentum: Positive
Has had a brilliant growth curve, coming to the finals with the lowest of expectations, starting on a disastrous foot and delivering back to back solid performances. Scores very high on the likability index but his normal-guyness makes him very unlikely to grow past the middle ranks.

Kris Allen
Momentum: Positive
Also showing a very strong growth curve, sneaking in almost under the radar; could be this year’s Jason Castro with his appeal to teen and younger girls.

Lil Rounds
Momentum: Negative 
Riding a growth chart almost the exact opposite of Anoop’s. Entered the finals with massively high expectations so that only complete show stopping performances will meet deliver. Thus far, has failed to have that needed- expected – breakthrough night.

Matt Giraud
Momentum: Positive
With easy charm, appeal to the critical cougar demographic and to the singer/songwriter Brooke White voting block, is looking more and more like a real contender.

Danny Gokey
Momentum: Even to negative
Another victim of early expectations and the one note-ness of his upbeat crowd pleasers is beginning to wear. But strong support from the church-going demo guarantees he’s in the race to stay for a while.



Allison Iraheta (pictured above)
Momentum: Positive
Gaining many followers with her impish charm and powerhouse alternative appeal. On the verge of breaking into the top tier. However, previous stint in the bottom three warns that she still has work to do to win over a dedicated following. Also – the edgy rocker girl demo has had a very rough history on the Idol stage. Will her edginess scare off her natural teen girl support.


TOP TIER

Adam Lambert
Momentum: Positive
Riding a string of memorable performances and at least one major breakthrough. Question marks remain; is he too flamboyant to go the distance?


And let us pause one last time – how this chart still seems somehow empty without Alexis Grace.

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